This week in the Tropical forecast, there is an Eastern Atlantic disturbance that is on its way to becoming a tropical depression, and there is also a possibility of a looming threat to the Lesser Antilles by the weekend. Guam has been issued a typhoon watch as Tropical Storm Halong continues to gather its strength before hitting shore.
There is an area of low lying pressure that is present over the eastern Atlantic this week which continues to organize today. Due to this area of low pressure thunderstorms have been persistent, and at 8 P.M a satellite caught a sharp turning of the winds at the surface. This disturbance has yet to reach the tropical depression status, but it is almost there. It is still missing the strong westerly wind that is needed on the southern side to completely close off its circulation. The environment ahead is favorable to create a tropical depression or even a tropical storm, and this will definitely be occurring sooner rather than later.
The future track of this storm, even for the short term, is pretty straight forward. Present right now is a solid ridge of high pressure, and this ridge will steer the system westward or west-northwestward for the next several days. By Friday, an upper low over the central Atlantic could possibly erode the area of high pressure, and this will begin to move the system northwestward. The intensity, and timing of this depression, or even storm, is vital to how hard the eastern Caribbean will be affected. If the system is presented as stronger, it is more favorable that the storm will take a more northerly path then it would if the system was weaker.
As of right now, it is too early to predict how this system will affect the United States. The bottom line is that the Lesser Antilles, which is comprised of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, should be watchful and vigilant of the possibility of a looming threat for the weekend.
As for the Eastern Pacific, Hernan is beginning to simmer down over the cooler ocean waters. There have been several disturbances over the open waters of the eastern and central Pacific, but none of those disturbances pose any immediate threat or risk of development, and they are all headed farther out to sea which is good news.
Over the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Halong has sprung up quite quickly, and as of now it is only about 200 miles east of Guam. This system is looking more like a typhoon instead of a tropical storm, with satellite images showing a partially closed eyewall that is beginning to form around the center of the systems circulation. A typhoon watch is now in effect for the U.S territory, as well as a flash flood watch because there is a chance for potentially heavy rainfall as the system makes its way over Guam early Wednesday morning during Eastern Time.
Also, there is another area of low lying pressure that is present east of the Philippines, and it is continuing to organize and grow. This system is much larger than Halong or Hernan and will bring a threat of locally heavy rainfall to southern Japan by late Wednesday and into Thursday eastern time, possibly even earning the title of Tropical Storm or Typhoon.