This week, overall it is still generally quiet on a worldwide scale. The Weather Channel is currently only keeping an eye on the eastern Pacific region for any activity.
For the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico, this young season has been all about the wind shear. The wind shear is basically categorized as hostile winds that tear apart thunderstorms before they can begin to cluster together, forming tropical cyclones. In the Caribbean, they have seen near-record highs for wind shear, and there is no sign of letting up this week.
The El Nino is not yet official, but it is definitely peeking around the corner, and it may be playing a role in some of the upper level flow across the Gulf and Caribbean. With that being said, El Nino is evolving and only one of the many factors that affect the day to day weather patterns.
As the El Nino begins to make its way back on track this summer, it is important to keep in mind that its presence alone does not necessarily mean that it will be an inactive system. Hurricane seasons during a weak El Nino can be quite active. For example, in 2004, five hurricanes struck the U.S during an El Nino. Even very destructive hurricanes that make land fall can occur during strong El Ninos, when total storm numbers may be low. Hurricanes Betsy and Agnes were two of the earliest billion dollar U.S disasters that hit during strong El Ninos, and there is more to come as the hurricane and tropical storm season progresses.
In the eastern Pacific, there is a forceful area of low lying pressure that has been smoldering south of Cabo San Lucas on the Pacific side of Mexico, and it has finally buckled against brisk winds. Soon, this system will be moving into cooler ocean water and a much drier atmosphere, which will put an end to any chances of development. New weather models are predicting a potent area of low lying pressure to developing south of the Pacific Coast of Mexico later on this week and into the weekend. It is still too early to begin sorting through the details, but this cell will need to be monitored, as there may be a threat for Mexico early on to next week.
You can always stay updated on the latest tropical updates if you live in a hurricane prone area by checking the Weather Channel.