Development in the Pacific, Fung-Wong hitting northern Philippines

For the central/eastern Atlantic season, it has been a very slow and non-active season. Whatever energy that is left in the region is now being put into creating the Category 3 Hurricane Edouard, and it is only the third named storm so far. The month ends in a week, and no further development is really expected. There have been a couple of waves and disturbances in concentrated regions of thunderstorms, but nothing big is expected to come of these small isolated cells.

Firstly, the month started with Dolly in the Gulf of Mexico, yet there has been no action since then. Prior to September, the subtropical western Atlantic was definitely a hot spot, with the A, B, and C storms in the area. Although Bertha did come from the Caribbean and the western tropical Atlantic, not the Gulf of Mexico.

There have been many “hurricane wannabes” in the Gulf of Mexico, and in the Atlantic near the southeast U.S coast, but the models are suggesting that Wednesday, the wet system there may follow a similar trend. It is expected that this system will undergo a phase of thunderstorms near the center of the core with warmer air, which are tropical characteristics. But, it isn’t really a tropical cyclone. This systems existence is driven solely by a non-tropical dip in the jet stream, as well as extreme temperature contrasts.

As we move ahead into the downward spiral of the hurricane season, various models have been watching a small cell that is trying to develop in the Gulf or tropical Atlantic, but there isn’t any concrete evidence yet that proves that it will develop into something larger. The bigger picture is that the atmospheric conditions look a little shaky as we head through the end of September and move into October.

Invest 99E is slowly tightening up off of the coast of Southern Mexico, and it is still likely to continue doing so. According to models, the forecast is that this cell will track neither due west or to the Baja peninsula.

Fung-Wong has now been classified by the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), and they have recently issued a tropical depression advisory. The JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) still has this system at a tropical storm level. Both of these models indicate that the system is becoming non-tropical as it continues to interact with a frontal system. Fung-Wong isn’t nearly as wet as it was coming off, but there could still be some localized heavy rain and flash flooding incidences in South Korea and Japan.

The next system is still a tropical depression according to the Japanese Meteorological Agency, but it isn’t classified yet by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It is slowly beginning to organize and will likely be on the way to become Kanmuri. The models are more in sync with eachother, which in turn means that there will be an eventual track towards Japan, although this system is still about 6 days out and time will only tell if the consistency will keep up from this point in time on.

It is now sliding away from the east coast of China and weakening, after dumping heavy rains on Taiwan accompanied with blustery winds on Sunday. It also brought deadly flooding to some parts of the northern Philippines. A strong wind shear will cause Fung-wong to continue weakening, and it will eventually transition into a remnant low by Wednesday, if not early. It will head toward the south coast of the Korean peninsula Wednesday morning local time.

Fung-Wong will bring locally heavy rainfall to South Korea and Japan, bringing the risk of flash flooding to areas in Japan that have recently experienced landslides.

Strong wind shear will cause Fung-wong to continue weakening and eventually transition into a remnant low by Wednesday, if not earlier.

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